Win Streaks in Football – Betting with or against them?

Sports bettors are constantly reminded of trends before the games to help them make more knowledgeable decisions when placing bets. One such trend is about winning streaks; the media frequently mentions that football teams have strung together consecutive victories. But how important are win streaks really, and what should bettors do with the knowledge that a team is on a roll?

How Important are Win Streaks?

Win streaks are important because they signify that a team is executing the way they need to win football games. They can assist teams in building momentum that they can use to play confidently in pressure situations in future games. But win streaks are not usually predictive of what could happen in the next game.

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The problem with win streaks in football handicapping is that many bettors take them at face value. A team winning five straight games is always impressive, but depending on the circumstances surrounding those victories, it could be more or less impressive than it sounds.

Consider the Context

Putting winning streaks in football into proper context is the most important thing a bettor can do. For example, let’s say a team has won four straight games, but all four came against teams in the last place in their division; that is not as impressive a streak as it sounds. On the other hand, a four-game winning streak against teams in playoff positions would signify that a team can handle the tough competition.

How a team has played during each win also must be taken into account. Using our four-game win streak example, let’s say that a team won all four of those games by a combined 10 points. That would signify that the team barely picked up each of those four victories, where a consistently high margin of victory during that extent would speak to a better run of form.

Considering the Matchups

Winning streaks are also not as significant as the matchups that a team faces in upcoming games. A team could win 50 games in a row, but if their next game is against a team they match up poorly against, the team on a winning streak could still be in danger of losing the next game. Personnel matchups are more important in football than they are in any other sport, with a winning streak involved or not.

In a similar vein to personnel matchups, each game is essential for contextualizing winning streaks and what they mean. Home-field advantage can be tangible in football and can be the difference in tight games. If a team goes on a continued winning streak at home and has to play as a visit, their winning streak could end.

All of this is to say that there is no one-size-fits-all solution to betting on football games where teams with winning streaks are playing. Regardless of how many consecutive games a team has won, bettors must consider every angle and aspect of the game to make the best possible decisions.

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