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Super Bowl Props Betting — Does Weather and Philosophy Alter the “Manning vs. Wilson” Argument?

When you are analyzing Super Bowl props this week from a football betting and handicapping standpoint, it may not be best to look at the vast array of what you see before you and play as many as you possibly can. If you are just looking to have some fun and make just about every play mean something to you, that’s okay. But IF you are hoping to come out at the end with a profit, you may want to zero in on those few where you could make an argument for having at least a little “edge.”

Without sounding all that arrogant, we think we may have found a couple for you, as the Big Game between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks approaches (6:30 PM ET at MetLife Stadium on Sunday).

Here’s the Super Bowl prop at WagerWeb that covers the likelihood of throwing the first interception:

Manning throws Interception first -150
Wilson throws interception first +110

It’s not as if this is a mismatch when we look at the interception rate of both. Wilson was not careless with the ball, throwing just nine interceptions. That’s one every 50 attempts. But Manning, who is the guy that goes down the field, who takes more chances and who has thrown for more yards, have been picked off just eleven times, which is once for every 67 attempts.

Based on the way they performed in their two playoff games, in which they put together a substantial advantage in time of possession, there is justification for football bettors at WagerWeb to expect a little ball control on the part of the Broncos, which would allow Manning to be more judicious in terms of being able to pick those spots in which he will toss it downfield.

We mention these kinds of things because we know that an argument made for the Seattle side in Super Bowl betting is that with the cold and wind conditions, the atmosphere for the passing game will not nearly be as favorable, and therefore not only will the respective ground attacks play a more prominent role, but the weather will prove an equalizer between these quarterbacks.

Getting around to WagerWeb’s Super Bowl prop covering a head-to-head comparison of both quarterbacks and their actual production on Sunday:

Peyton Manning (passing yards) -80½ (-115)
Russell Wilson (passing yards) +80½ (-125)

We would offer a differing opinion on this “equalizer” argument. Any NFL bettor who has followed the game for a number of years is aware of the effect the winds can play in the Meadowlands, and that is the case whether it was the “old” Giants Stadium or the new MetLife Stadium. But if those conditions exist, NFL bettors should always want to go with the better passer; the guy who demonstrates that he has the better arm, because he can almost always negotiate those winds better. We know that guy is Manning, and we also know that Wilson’s arm is average at best for an NFL quarterback.

Not only has Manning played in the Meadowlands more, but if he’s got questions – and here we will paraphrase a line from The Godfather – who’s a better “consiligiere” than his brother (Giants’ QB Eli Manning).

The winds are not expected to be a huge factor anyway; they will probably not get far beyond 10 mph, and the New York area will not be hit with Winter Storm Nika until Tuesday at the earliest. Temperatures are expected to be around 28-30 degrees even as this game enters the second half, so while it won’t be comfortable for everyone in the stands, it will be far from an “Ice Bowl.” Meanwhile, you don’t want to get “frozen” out of the all the wagering options for Super Bowl betting, so it is vital that you sign up right now for an account at WagerWeb and get the ball ROLLING!

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